Is your airport ready for climate change?

Climate hazards are increasingly disrupting the normal functioning of airports worldwide, leading to damage, operational performance or safety issues, economic loss, and other business or environmental and social consequences. Widescale flooding at Dubai International and Palma de Mallorca airports, and the disruption of thousands of flights because of the tropical storm, Beryl are very recent examples of the increasing severity and unpredictability of this issue.

With climate change intensifying extremes, such as storms, precipitation, and heat waves, these threats are only set to grow, placing additional stress on airport infrastructure and the current way of operating. For example, a 2°C increase in global temperature could submerge over 100 coastal or low-lying airports, necessitating multi-billion-dollar investments to ensure business continuity.

Introducing a new tool for climate hazard risk analysis

Despite the aviation sector’s proactive approach to safety management, there is a significant gap in understanding the scale of the potential impact of climate hazard events and formulating effective strategies to address extremes. As a PhD researcher at the Centre for Air Transport Management at Cranfield University, I am researching climate hazards, their implications for airports, and how to build adaptive capacity. I have developed a new tool, the Airport Climate Risk Index (ACRI), to support airports in identifying, analysing and assessing potential risks of climate hazards, including flooding (coastal and/or inland), extreme temperatures, storms and wind, extreme snowfall, and drought/water scarcity.

The tool quantifies risk determinants, namely climate hazards, airport exposure, vulnerability, and adaptability. It serves as a self-assessment tool, helping airport managers identify gaps in their existing level of resilience and make well-informed and strategic decisions on prioritising risk mitigation action over the short and long term. We would like to invite UK airports to participate in the research, which will assist in assessing and mitigating climate hazard risks.

While the need to assess climate adaptation for airports is well known, current risk analysis tools often overlook the interconnected nature of airports and the potential for significant impact of low-probability events. Considering the wide range of implications of climate hazards, effective management requires comprehensive tools that address the complexity of the hazards and the airport system. This is where the ACRI seeks to build on existing approaches and techniques. Without such tools, there is the risk of underestimating risks, preventing airports from planning and implementing effective climate adaptation measures at sufficient speed and scale.

The prototype version of the tool has been tested with three UK regional airports, validating its concept and effectiveness. The index has also been presented at international air transport conferences in Antwerp, Osaka, and Lisbon, and it has been published in a leading peer-reviewed journal (Transport Reviews). Findings indicate a need for a shift in practices and culture to enhance airport readiness for climate-resilient growth.